Incident Evolution and Task Demands: an Analysis and a Field Study of `going Sour' Incidents

When managing complex systems, cognitive demands or problem-solving situations can appear in diierent ways. In some situations, problems surface gradually while being recognised, identiied and treated. This category of situations has been labelled as`going sour' incidents. Within these incidents, there are a number of interesting and unique features warranting special attention. The present research project attempts to depict the the task demands associated with going sour incidents. After initial analysis of complexity and some eld observations, initial hypotheses were generated. Subsequent eld study has provided support for the hypotheses. Major ndings on going sour incidentsinclude: 1 problem-solving spans a long period of time and requires synthesis of information over this period; 2 trouble spots have to be checked repeatedly as the environment is likely to change over time; 3 interventions are required before obtaining suucient number of signs; and 4 multiple hypotheses must be maintained and examined as the underlying problem changes appearance slowly from one form to another.